How Subnautica Proved Humans Are Going Extinct! | The SCIENCE!… of Subnautica Below Zero
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How Subnautica Proved Humans Are Going Extinct! | The SCIENCE!… of Subnautica Below Zero


Dear Unknown Worlds. Hi! It’s me! Austin! You have made a Subnautica expansion (or you’re making one, it’s still in early access, and it SHOWS sometimes…) BUT! That’s not what this is about. This is about ME finally having an excuse to make a video on Subnautica, which I WANTED to do for ages, but COULDN’T because I’m dumb and couldn’t come up with an idea. BUT NOW I HAVE ONE, and it’s gonna be awesome it’s gonna be terrifying on a cosmic An Existential level (oh boy here we go) AND it’s gonna have spoilers for the first Subnautica game and the new expansion so if you’re scared by spoilers more than you are the inevitability of death and Extinction, you can click away in five four three two one Let’s Go Honestly, there’s a lot of cool things hiding in Subnautica but when Subnautica was making the rounds on YouTube my kid was just about 1 year old and so like honestly it’s amazing I was able to get any videos done during that time at all Let alone come up with something cool about one of the most unique small ish Titles to remain relevant for as long as it did want to know why I was constantly Shrieking for my first year and a half on the game theorists? It’s because I was only able to stay awake and make videos by downing enough coffee to drown a small European nation! *dying* Where was I- OH RIGHT! Okay, but no subnautica. We’re back on track. Subnautica on its surface is a game about swimming in an Extraterrestrial ocean filled with alien fish if you go one layer deeper it’s a game about overcoming a biological epidemic that wiped out an entire species before you if you go even deeper it’s a game about correcting a millennia-long Injustice imposed on an innocent sentient species by freeing their children! if there’s something wrong with your brain like mine and you know that the story of subnautica is one about why we Humans are all secretly doomed to extinction, (oh boy he’s going at it) our destiny to fade into obscurity In the cosmos ignored by other sentient species, that will arise Millions of years after our Sun has exploded and erased all evidence of our planet from the cosmic map and since it’s part of my mission to spread whatever is wrong with my brain among the masses so that the abnormal things that I Think about become so prevalent as to be the new normal So that the doctors will stop threatening to commit me and instead I can put them in the psych ward THIS is what we’re talking about today how subnautica DOOMED humanity and it all starts with one simple multiplication problem. R star times F of P times n of e times F of one times F of I times F of C times. L who could have predicted that you would have learned everything you needed to know to be able to Calculate the end of human civilization by the time you’re in sixth grade Welcome to the wonderful world of Drake equations and Fermi paradoxes walk with me down the dark path Of infinity Okay, this formula, this long string of multiplication is what’s known as the Drake Equation and it’s our stepping stone into understanding the wider world of well… our galaxy, the wider galaxy, but Whatever this equation was written by. Dr. Frank Drake in 1961 as a way of quantifying and Informing the conversation about the search for extraterrestrial intelligence And while the math in the equation is very simple The methods used to estimate the numbers in it are not but we’ll forego that for now R star is the average rate of star formation in our galaxy f of P is a fraction of those that have planets and of E is the average number of planets that can potentially support life for a star that actually has the planets F of 1 is the fraction of those planets that actually develop life at all F of I is the fraction of those that actually develop Intelligent life F of C is a percentage of those that develop Technology that releases signals of their existence into space and L is the length of time for which those civilizations Release those signals into space and all of these return of value n which represents the number of civilizations That should exist in our galaxy that we should be able to communicate with drakes initial variables in 1961 returned a value of 20 meaning that there should be when we look up into the sky evidence of about 20 civilizations that we should be able to communicate with or At least receive signals from this gets a little bit more complicated as you consider that the speed of light is a pretty Significant speed limit when you’re talking about an entire galaxy But that might become important later on modern estimates are actually quite a bit Larger for a number of reasons as we’ve learned that planets are actually a lot more Common and our communication estimates have been a lot more truncated giving us anywhere from Okay Giving us anywhere from a hundred and fifty three to six thousand three hundred possible visible Civilizations in our galaxy and at this point you’re like, but Austin Where the hell is everybody then? Congratulations, you’re asking exact question Enrico Fermi did in 1950 if you’re part of the other group of people That’s like but Austin, what does this have to do with subnautica? We are about to get there I promise but I gotta explain the Fermi paradox first Thankfully, it’s a very simple concept and it’s very easily explained by the question Fermi asked where is everybody Where the f*ck is everybody? So this paradox the idea of if there’s life where the hell is it? does pretty date the Drake Equation but Unfortunately, the Drake Equation only reinforces the idea that there’s something wrong with how we look at the universe and the origins of life We’ve been actively trying to communicate since the 70s by sending out signals like the outer SIBO message But we’ve been broadcasting our butts for nearly 200 years which while light travels fast No that fast and our signals have only got a few millimeters into the Galactic map But every year they go that much further and the fact of the matter. Is that any civilization Predating us by any major amount should have left some evidence behind yet They haven’t so there’s something we’re not Accounting for when we’re looking for life out there in the rest of the galaxy but back to subnautica Because this is a world filled with life We don’t have to worry about Fermi paradox is because the paradox isn’t a paradox life exists in these worlds Not just life, but intelligent life There’s the precursors the primordial intelligent race that left behind relics and there’s the sea emperor Leviathan an intelligent Giant whale thing. So no Fermi paradox. No problem right wrong You are so dang wrong. It ain’t even funny And in fact the existence of not just complex multicellular life and animals on this planet isn’t just a major issue with the Fermi paradox It combined with the existence of not one but two Intelligent species only one of which formed a technologically advanced spacefaring and brain downloading culture. Oh my god humanity is Absolutely doomed this is due to any number of reasons But the biggest one is that they establish multiple times in Subnautica that intelligent extraterrestrial life capable of communication is mostly undiscovered and life itself is generally pretty rare this if anything is a validation of the Fermi paradox because as calculated by the most conservative solutions of the Drake Equation There should be like at least tens more civilizations and millions more planets with complex life So to summarize where the heck is everybody and in order to answer that question we have to loop in one more principle for the search of extraterrestrial life great Filters honestly, if you’re a fan of this show, then you’re probably a fan of Kurtz good to carets Gazette Just put it on screen, Tonya anyway You’re probably a fan of the show in a nutshell like I am but a bears repeating for those of you who aren’t familiar Anyway, because it’s super important to our conclusions here I learned about the Fermi paradox before I learned about great filters because the concept of great filters is relatively new It was originally coined by economist Robin Hanson in 1996 and elaborated on by him in 1998 great filters are a proposed solution to the Fermi paradox And it goes something kind of like this So in order for life to exist a universe has to be born the laws of physics have to form exactly the way they are Now the right star system with habitable planets has to form reproductive molecules like RNA And DNA have to form than single-cell life than sexual reproduction. Multi cell life bigger multi cell life tool using animals Big brains have to happen then maybe we get to someplace like where humans are now then a smart tool using species has to survive long enough to populate their system Then the galaxy each of these steps listed here which is a short list by the way is a potential grape filter a place where life May not find a way along the way if you take a Relatively liberal estimate that it’s guaranteed that a universe and physics will form and everything else is a coin flip The end result is that surviving a great filter and becoming a spacefaring species is only point one percent this explanation is elegant because it supposes that the reason we don’t see life happen more is because there’s some barriers along the way that almost statistically impossible For life to form as we would expect it to whether it’s that there are so few types of molecules that can store and reproduce Information or that gamma-ray bursts are microwaving. Yes I know they’re not really microwaves shut up life to death or well other terrible things happen There’s any number of steps up until where we are now that could be making it much more difficult for life to gain intelligence and Technology a simple explanation may be that honestly Intelligence is overrated from a day-to-day life in the jungle perspective intelligence is honestly more of a burden than a boon Sure, we talk about how great it is now, but we’ve already conquered our planet look at my cat My cat does not need intelligence. Look how happy she is. Look at Trina’s dumb stupid fuzzy widdle happy face our kids come out dumb and Helpless and loud not exactly prime survival stuff in the cutthroat world of the wild but that’s where subnautica comes in because right now among some of you an Existential dread might be forming. What if what if it’s possible that we haven’t passed our great filter yet? What if intelligence is really common? but the reason the reason we don’t see more evidence of civilizations out there is because intelligence is really mundane, but it also Naturally destroys itself if we’re alone in the galaxy It becomes increasingly unlikely that we have yet to pass our great filter but if say we start running into sparse but still existent life-forms on planets like four five or six be Teeming with simple life a near extinct intelligent species and ancient relics of a technologically advanced definitely extinct race But we haven’t resolved the Fermi paradox. It means that our great filter is still yet to come It is before us in the subnautica universe. There’s actually an explanation Microbes the khara bacterium obliterated the precursors and many other forms of life Remember my tuberculosis episode from a few weeks ago. Remember the Drug-resistant strains. Remember the most deadly disease on earth HIV malaria Global climate change nuclear weapons. There’s a bajillion Potential great filters before us so running into extinct life in a galaxy where life is still kinda rare? that means that we still have our greatest challenge to our existence to overcome or our extinction is guaranteed because of life is this common and getting to this place is this likely it means according to again, our *literal* estimates Humanity is best-case looking at a point one chance of surviving past the next great hurdle I do not like those odds The best-case scenario is that the Fermi paradox is just wrong that there’s a crap-ton of life out there and civilizations But we just can’t see them a mass effect solution and he’ll even mass effect had a great filter In fact, that game is a perfect example reapers Obliterating generations of species over and over and over it’s artificial, but it’s still a filter and hell Maybe our filter is AI that wants to kill us. Who knows? That’s the great thing about living in our universe gamma-ray bursts traveling at the speed of light the 30 to 40 Invisible near-earth asteroids that we know are somewhere we don’t know the size or exactly where they are nukes robots there’s bajillions of things that could end our existence like that and it turns out discovering something as Amazing as life on another planet may in fact be terrible Terrible news life is impermanent dying is easy and that’s the bedtime story I tell my child every night before putting them down to bed Sleep tight sincerely, Austin

100 thoughts on “How Subnautica Proved Humans Are Going Extinct! | The SCIENCE!… of Subnautica Below Zero

  1. eh there is no evidence that the precursors are extinct its that the precursors who went to the planet were infected not the entire species

  2. I wish I could subscribe to only Austin… MatPat's videos have become less exciting and more inaccurate or obvious.

  3. I got SO excited when I saw this thumbnail! Then I realized it was GameTheory and not NeebsGaming.. #ClickBait(?) #FeelsBadMan #JK #OrAmI? #StillLoveYou #GameTheory

  4. I think it’s infinitely more likely that we just have no patience. Our technology for just looking into the sky has improved drastically in the last 50 years or so. We still get shocked by finding extremophile life in places we were certain no life could be. We have difficulty gauging the intelligence of members of our own species who don’t look or speak exactly like us—much less the intelligence of other animals on our own planet.
    In a universe with a mind melting number of other galaxies, much less other stars, it is very easy to believe we haven’t seen evidence because we’ve only barely begun to look.

  5. Basically you told us that the end is coming and we are statistically likely to go extinct from natural or artificial means

  6. U know, I had a conversation with my history teach before and he was talking about how global warming is a bad thing then I said, u know it would probably be a good thing is another ice age happened, and that global warming would pretty much reset, and well I didn’t say this in the conversation but it would also help with over population around the world if that happens soon, u know if Austin is reading this, u need to make a video about how all the smart people from back in the day said that “some day soon we will stave” but yet we’re getting the opposite of that, and now we have a lot of over weight people who are obese or has diabetes (sorry if you have done something like that, I don’t have time to watch em all)

    Sincerely,
    A 6th grader, about to be in 7th

  7. Look all im saying is after listening to him say that "maybe intelligence is overrated" it made me remember that a study found that typically the more intelligent a person the more likely they are to become depressed and/or suicidal. My point is it basically means the more that the brain understands the more it wants to destroy itself.

  8. Religion is also an immediate solution to the paradox(I’m not super religious or anything I’m just saying)

  9. Three things:
    1) According to Austin's model doesn't that mean that we have a 50/50 chance of surviving the next great filter. The 0.1% it's just multiplying all those 50%'s together and we survived all of them so far meaning the next one is another 50% chance, and we've been damn lucky so far.

    2) What is the song at the end of this video?

    3) Sorry if someone already mentioned my first two.

  10. Am I the only one who watched the one on monika and now is afraid monika is gonna be alive when all this happens lol

  11. game theorist pulls out "simple" math problem who could have predicted that everything you needed to know to be able to calculate the end of human civilization you learned in sixth grade!??

    me: fresh out of highschool im gonna stop you right there

  12. my own little theory on life: planet earth is but one of the many many many many planets in this essentially endless universe. there is an unknown (but very very big) number of galaxies, solar systems, and planets. if you take into consideration the sheer size of the universe, wouldn't that make it virtually impossible for humans to be the only intelligent life forms out there? even more so if we are talking about life in general! now im no scientist or math person, but that just makes alot of sense to me, even if there is only one other planet with life out there, intelligent or not.

  13. Can you do me a favor austin make an episode about pollution so I can tell my sister we arnt ALL GOING EXTINCT IN 15 YEARS BECAUSE OF PLASTIC KILLING HER DAM SEA TURTLES, I'm sorry I just cannot explain how anoying it is to talk to a brick wall, I mean my sister

  14. well there is a game called natural selection 2
    its about people fighting against an alien infestation

    which takes place in the same universe as subnautica
    it takes place just a couple light years away

    so there's that

  15. Math:
    Number/addition=level 1
    Number/multiplication=level 40
    Number/numbers=level 100000
    Thats how mafia works😂😂

  16. you said spoilers for both games yet you never spoiled below zero ( and I thank you I haven't got to play that one yet)

  17. The next great filter is a lot of things, but it's probably gonna be what we do as a species in the next 200 or so years.

  18. Here's another theory and one I like. Maybe we're just thinking too hard and the answer is that we're just alive to be alive and exeprince life. Maybe the answer is much more simple than we think it is?

  19. I feel that higher intelligence is not that common because look how common it is on our world. Just an opinion.

  20. Firmi paradox is bullshit. It accounts for none of the various possibilities of contact already having happened and simply us being unaware of it.
    Just a few examples for a type of "hidden" alien contact: 1) We were found, and are being studied from a distance. 2) our section of the galaxy has been cordoned off to let us develop without interference. 3) they are able to infiltrate us without us noticing, so there are plenty of aliens on Earth and we just don't know. 4) aliens are so absolutely massive or so incredibly small that interaction is impossible. Then if you accept some more "out there" possiblities we could also have: 5) we live in differente "phases" of reality (think instances in MMO videogames). 6) they live in the 5th or 6th dimension, which we of course cannot interact with. 7) maybe we were seeded in this galaxy, and in this one there's only us, but in others there's plenty of life. 8) maybe we are actually the oldest species to ever evolve, so no other species has the technology to communicate with us yet. 9) opposite, we are the youngest species and everyone else has gone extinct millenia ago.

    And those are just off the top of my head. There are so many possibilites for why we've not found another sentient species that I don't understand how anyone could ever take this absurd so-called paradox seriously.

  21. You failed to mention that they may already have made contact with us and we "plebs" are not privileged enough to know this information from our governments.

  22. Me when hears what the letters was Austin was talking about:
    Runs into moms room and fells on the floor,after that,wakes up and screams:THERE IS LIFE IN SPACE

  23. You screwed up your probabilities. In your example, where every filter presents a 50% possibility of failure, the chance of the human race making its next saving throw is 50% – not 0.1%. Prior samples do not affect the probability of the current sample. You can flip a coin and have it land heads fifty times in a row – that does not raise the probability that the next flip will land tails above 50%.

  24. Im looking at Game Theory when im want to have fun. Is it fun to hear that the Humans ar only 1% chances of surviving?

    Answer: no

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